UK Election A Close Call With Only Three Days Away
Posted: Monday, May 03, 2010
by Jennifer Stewart
Stepping out of History
Countdown to the UK elections and campaigning is in its final week. All three parties have changed leaders since the last election and none of them have headed a general election before.
Three public debates which took place between Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats saw public opinion swing wildly. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg gained popularity after the first debate. Polls showed that 64% of voters wanted him to play a role in the next government.
Gordon Brown lashed out at Clegg, calling him a game show host and now, with all the debates over, perhaps the public is beginning to agree, as that figure has slipped to 47%.
Currently, with elections just three days away, polls differ somewhat. ComRes figures showed Conservatives at 38%, Labour at 28% and Liberal Democrats at 25%. This from a phone sample size of 1,019 adults.
According to YouGov, Conservatives have 34%, Labour 29% and Liberal Democrats 28%. This would seem to indicate a Conservatives lead over Labour.
However, because Britain's voting system is not representational, the figures (according to the BBC's forecasting formula) mean 264 seats for Conservatives and 267 seats for Labour in the House of Commons which has 650 members. This is not enough for a majority government, which requires 326 seats.
Gordon Brown will be relieved to know that his gaffe didn't change public opinion as much as everybody feared - or hoped. 85% of people polled said it hadn't made them change their mind about who to vote for. However, 11% said it did, and if the election is close, and the figures swing the other way again, the gaffe might still prove to have been the death knell of Gordon Brown's Labour party.
Discontent in the UK regarding the voting system is on the increase with 55% of people polled saying they think it's time for a change.
Three public debates which took place between Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats saw public opinion swing wildly. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg gained popularity after the first debate. Polls showed that 64% of voters wanted him to play a role in the next government.
Currently, with elections just three days away, polls differ somewhat. ComRes figures showed Conservatives at 38%, Labour at 28% and Liberal Democrats at 25%. This from a phone sample size of 1,019 adults.
According to YouGov, Conservatives have 34%, Labour 29% and Liberal Democrats 28%. This would seem to indicate a Conservatives lead over Labour.
However, because Britain's voting system is not representational, the figures (according to the BBC's forecasting formula) mean 264 seats for Conservatives and 267 seats for Labour in the House of Commons which has 650 members. This is not enough for a majority government, which requires 326 seats.
Gordon Brown will be relieved to know that his gaffe didn't change public opinion as much as everybody feared - or hoped. 85% of people polled said it hadn't made them change their mind about who to vote for. However, 11% said it did, and if the election is close, and the figures swing the other way again, the gaffe might still prove to have been the death knell of Gordon Brown's Labour party.
Discontent in the UK regarding the voting system is on the increase with 55% of people polled saying they think it's time for a change.
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